Good evening, it is Tuesday March 8, and the war in Ukraine has raged for thirteen days.
False Accusations
Russia has leveled unsubstantiated claims that Ukraine is making a nuclear “dirty bomb.” This could be the cooked-up pretext to justify targeting Ukrainian nuclear-powered electricity plants, or the pretext for Russia launching a nuke down the line.
Escape
Folks from Irpin are picking their way across to Kyiv, a rough journey that demands that people who cannot cross a precarious, rickety haphazardly made bridge. The original bridge was taken out by the Ukrainians, as it was the main route to Kyiv, and the Russians are slowly but inexorably tightening the noose around the city.
The precarious nature of the river crossing means elderly and infirm are sometimes borne by strangers.
This is not an agreed-upon safe corridor, it’s a route that has been attacked by Russians before. But what choice is there? They cannot stay in Irpin.
Russia is still shelling an evacuation route out of Mariupol. The city is in very bad shape - bodies are sometimes left uncollected, shelves at groceries are empty, and medicines are all out of stock. A child died of dehydration in the city recently, according to Ukrainian authorities.
Only Sumy has a Russian-approved temporary humanitarian escape route, to Poltava, about 100 miles to the south in central Ukraine.
Russia announced a cease-fire for a humanitarian evacuation corridor for March 9, for the cities of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Mariupol, along with other towns negotiated with the Ukrainian side. Ukraine responded, “it is difficult to trust the occupier.” Russia has violated cease-fires during this conflict and in other conflicts it has taken part in. Russia has demonstrated multiple times both recently and previously that they cannot be trusted to keep their word.
War Crimes?
Over 2 million refugees have fled Ukraine. About 1.2 million of the total have fled to Poland. The U.S. has admitted about 700 Ukrainian refugees so far.
This is the largest and most rapidly escalating refugee crisis since World War II. There are 200,000 internally displaced Ukrainians seeking shelter in Lviv, and the city is struggling to provide shelter and food for them all.
The Human Rights Watch (HRW) said Russian forces had "violated their obligations under international humanitarian law not to conduct indiscriminate or disproportionate attacks that harm civilians."
A Russian airstrike on an apartment building in Sumy on Monday has killed 9, two of whom were children. The total death toll from the airstrike on Sumy is 21.
At least 38 children have died in the war in Ukraine thus far. The Ukrainian State Emergency Service says over 2,000 civilians have died. The United Nations has recorded at least 752 civilian casualties so far across Ukraine, with 227 killed and 525 injured. These numbers are very likely an undercount, and will continue to rise.
Museums across Ukraine are also racing to try to preserve the country’s national treasures, as indiscriminate shelling threatens museums as well as hospitals, homes, and people.
WTF
The Russian Orthodox Church alleges gay pride parades were part of the reason for Ukraine war.
Diplomatic Maneuvers
Today, Zelenskyy became the first foreign official ever to directly address the House of Commons. He echoed some of Churchill’s wartime rhetoric and referenced Shakespeare, and asked the U.K. to, among other things, recognize Russia as a terrorist state. He stated the Ukrainians would fight in the forests, fields, and shores, and would never give up. Zelenkyy got a standing ovation for it. It was quite the speech.
Meanwhile, Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, was condemned by cross-party members of Parliament for telling the House of Commons the day before that a visa center for Ukrainian refugees had been set up in Calais to help refugees trying to enter the UK – a claim now known to be false. So basically, she’s a lying liar who lies. There’s a scramble to set up something in Calais now. The government is accused of really dropping the ball when it comes to aiding refugees overall, including with too-high paperwork barriers that other states have suspended or eliminated due to the nature of the emergency.
Poland wants to pass the MiGs to the USA, and in exchange the USA will give Poland some F16’s. The USA then transfers the MiGs to Ukraine. This way, Ukraine gets the planes they need, but there isn’t direct NATO confrontation with Russia.
Don’t expect the MiGs to actually be physically transported to the USA - what’s likely going to happen is something less silly, and Poland has suggested transportation of the planes to an American airbase in Germany (how this will work isn’t quite settled yet). This little shell game is only diplomacy speak so everything is on the up-and-up. It’s quite clear this is a direct funneling of material support to Ukraine’s war effort - and Poland has urged other nations with sought-after material to do similarly.
Russian and Ukranian delegates are set to meet for a fourth time on Thursday. We will see what comes of it.
Nuclear Warning
The International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, said on Tuesday that it has lost contact with remote data transmission from safeguards monitoring systems installed at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in northern Ukraine, which was taken over by Russian forces last month.
The staff has not been rotated out yet, and in order for the plant to operate safely, that needs to occur. So yeah, it’s a bit concerning.
Oil Bans
Russia threatened to turn off the oil and natural gas tap to Europe by shutting down Nord Stream 1 if states start banning Russian energy imports.
Russia supplies about 40% of Europe’s gas. Germany, the EU’s largest economy, relies on Russia for almost 50% of its natural gas. This is a major threat to Europe, but energy exports are a major source of income to the Russian regime, and so quite tempting to leverage.
That’s why today, Biden announced a Russian oil import ban anyway. It was a unilateral move, and the U.S. doesn’t really rely much on Russian imports - most American energy imports are from Canada, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia, in that order. But the stress on the market means prices at the pump will continue to rise.
After Biden’s announcement Victoria Nuland, the U.S. State Department undersecretary for Political Affairs, reacted to the ban on CNN, saying, "we need to remember that the villain here is President Putin and President Zelensky is right, every drop of Russian oil that is consumed, is another drop of Ukrainian blood spilled."
That being said, the EU plans to slash Russian gas imports by two-thirds this year and aims to phase out dependence before 2030. The U.K will phase out Russian oil and energy imports sooner, by the end of this year.
Can Ukraine Win?
That remains to be seen. There is a chance, but it isn’t as great as the pro-Ukraine messaging might make it seem.
U.S. intelligence estimates that between 2,000 and 4,000 Russian troops have been killed and lost about 8-10% of their military assets thus far, and certainly everyone expected the Russians to have made much more progress than they actually have thus far.
Russia has the fifth largest army in the world, so they have a lot more resources than Ukraine does. However, they are unable to restock and resupply, and they have run into serious on-the-ground issues that indicate lack of planning, lack of communication, and plain old corruption have hampered the army’s ability. In contrast, Ukraine is getting massive international support in money, material, supplies, weapons, and international fighters. Maybe, just maybe, it will be enough.
Russia is still gaining ground in Ukraine, but Ukraine is making them pay heavily for every inch. This is counter to what Putin seems to have assumed would occur, as he predicted and planned for a toppled Kyiv within a few days. It has been a fortnight, and the city is still standing.
Russia has launched about 670 missiles at and inside Ukraine, but they do not at all dominate Ukrainian airspace. It remains highly contested, and the shipment of new planes to Ukrainian forces may help them hold out that much longer.
Putin’s announcement that he was elevating the readiness status of his nuclear forces is unnerving, but it’s very likely the announcement was meant to spook the rest of us and get us to back off. In other words, deterrence. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take it seriously, but it does mean that Putin probably doesn’t want to tangle with the U.S. directly.
It’s tricky, but it also gives the West a bit more maneuvering room here.
However, Putin now views Ukraine as a war he cannot afford to lose - and he certainly has shown great willingness to disregard civilian life to do so. That does not bode well for the future.
And even if he does not drop nukes, Putin has shown willingness to use chemical weaponry and has used it in Syria to devastating effect. There’s a lot that can go very bad, here, for all of us.
There are a couple of possible end games here that I can see.
The West nudges Putin to find a way he can declare “mission accomplished” to save face, even if it’s bullshit, and then he goes home. This would have been the least-bad scenario because it would wrap things up quickly. This is increasingly unlikely by the day, in my opinion, as Putin has only doubled down on the decision to take Ukraine.
World War III, which happens the second Putin insists on attacking a NATO member directly. Putin has done a LOT of saber-rattling about it, but he hasn’t crossed that particular line yet. This also comes with the risk of both chemical and nuclear warfare.
The West lets him take Ukraine, Putin eventually continues with other eastern European states, because Putin has imperial ambitions and this was never going to stop with Ukraine. This is also unlikely, as a large chunk of the world has shown remarkable unity re: telling Putin to go fuck himself.
Someone in Russia takes Putin out and regime change happens and that allows this war to end.
Your guess is as good as mine.
You’ll notice that I did not say “Ukraine wins.” That isn’t because I think it is impossible, but rather, because Ukraine successfully pushing Putin out will not, I believe, prevent him from trying again later. So long as he lives, Putin will try to subjugate the country.
In anticipation of the end of the war, the West is cooking up a new Marshall Plan, similar to how the USA acted to rehabilitate Germany and Western Europe after WWII ended, in part to stave off Communist influence.
Cyber-Warfare
It is, in fact. surprising that we have not seen cyberwarfare and ransomware unleashed on Ukraine and the West at large - but that doesn’t mean it isn’t coming. It is very possible that Putin is holding cyber-options in reserve as a retaliatory move.
Pulling Out
McDonad’s and Unilever ceased operations in Russia today. The support Putin does have from Russians mostly involve tolerating living in an authoritarian regime because they had access to the benefits of capitalism, like burgers, decent living, and a job. And now all those things he promised (and enforced, and lied about) are up in dust.
The Russian Resistance
Over 14,000 Russian citizens have been arrested for protesting Putin’s war.
This is a huge number for any country, but in a deeply repressive regime like Russia, the kind of personal risk every single protester took cannot be overstated.