I realized I should be dating these things better, so I will start doing that going forward.
Good evening, it is Monday, March 7, and Ukraine has been fighting off Russian occupation for 12 days.
An Insulting Offer
Russian and Ukrainian delegates met for a third time today to discuss possible ways to end the war.
The last time, Russia agreed to a cease-fire for humanitarian aid, only to immediately violate it, so the hopes for a breakthrough weren’t exactly high.
This time, Russia only agreed to escape corridors for civilians that lead to Belarus and Russia, which Ukraine slammed as “completely immoral.”
According to the Kyiv Independent, in order to cease hostilities, Russia demands Ukraine cease all military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, permanently cede Crimea to Russia, recognize the Russian-backed breakaway proxy states in the Donbass region, Donetsk and Luhansk, as independent.
Ukraine just wants Russia to go home.
Make no mistake: these are not peace terms, they are conditions of surrender. Were Ukraine to submit to these terms, Zelenskyy might remain alive as a figurehead, but a pro-Russia regime would be installed, and a functioning democracy would be reduced to a Soviet-style satellite state.
Nor should you trust that Russia would keep its word and keep the peace. Russia has violated ceasefires in Syria, and during this war as well. Appeasing Russia would be the equivalent of Chamberlain trying to appease Hitler.
It would not work. The beast will always be hungry.
Zelensky warned the world today: “We will come first. You will come second.”
Russian Forces, Civilian Losses
The 40-mile convoy outside Kyiv remains stalled, and Russia has committed about 100% of its pre-staged combat power to action in Ukraine.
In contrast, more than 20,000 volunteers from 52 countries are showing up to join a foreigners’ unit in the Ukrainian armed forces to push Putin’s forces back, according to Brigadier General Kyrylo Budanov, commander of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry that will run this legion. Most have combat experience from various peacekeeping missions.
The rate of bombardment on Ukrainian cities has increased.
The UN counts over 1,200 civilian deaths thus far, but also warns the real number is likely much, much higher. Sadly, this number will continue to rise and the true cost may not be known until much later.
Stuck in Russia
A WNBA player, Brittney Griner, is being held in Russia on trumped up drug charges - namely, a vape cartridge. She normally plays in Russia during the off season. All of her other teammates are out of the area and back in the USA.
This woman is openly queer and has a wife. She is not only being held as a pawn because of her citizenship, but is also in danger due to how Russia is treating the LGBTQ community.
Calling Out The BS
Per CNN, the US State Department said a tweet from Russia’s Embassy in the United Kingdom was a “flat out lie.”
The tweet, posted Monday, claimed that Russia's military actions aimed "to stop any war that could take place on Ukrainian territory or that could start from there,” quoting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
US State Department Spokesman Ned Price responded on Twitter, saying: “This is a flat out lie. Russia’s special military operation is instigating a war in Ukraine. Ukraine does not want a war. #StopTheLies.”
Sanctions
Many states are in favour of weaning themselves off of Russian energy, but not Germany and Hungary, who are especially dependent on it. The EU as a whole relies on Russia for 40% of its gas needs and about 27% of oil imports. For these two states, those numbers are even higher - and it’s still winter in much of the continent.
Nevertheless, coordinated energy sanctions very much remain on the table for most of the bloc and the U.S.
However, the world is united in sanctioning Russia. In less than a fortnight, sanctions on Russia surpassed both Iran and North Korea, earning it the dubious distinction of being the world’s most sanctioned nation.
The Russian ruble has hit new record lows. One American dollar will net you 155 rubles.
The Failures of Solidarity
The EU has opened its doors to Ukraine's refugees. But not the UK. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government (specifically via from a statement from the Home Office) has only granted fifty visas to refugees, and refugees need a visa. Who is eligible for a visa and how they can get one is not at all clear.
However, UK Government’s Ukraine Family Scheme does provide immigration security, the right to work and free access to healthcare, education and housing. The initiative has had over 8,900 applications started so far, with 300 visas issued till date.
It’s a start.
EU Expansion
The EU has agreed to consider bids from Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova to join the bloc. The accession process generally takes years, but this is the first step.
Some folks think that Putin has a point when he talks about feeling threatened by an expanding NATO, but this denies what we have seen happen this past week: Russia is pushing people into NATO’s and the EU’s sphere - NATO is not expanding despite Russia, but because of it.
All countries that are applying to join these alliances are doing so in response to Putin’s aggression.
Pretending otherwise is denying their agency.
A New Hermit Kingdom?
Russia’s media ecosystem is already pretty locked in, and Putin’s grip on communications is growing tighter. As a result, even if they have relatives in Ukraine, many Russians find the truth hard to believe when they are told what is going on.
It’s about to get a lot worse, and soon Russia’s information ecosystem will be a lot more closed off - more akin to China’s than Europe’s.
Already an authoritarian state, control of the information to this extent would mean an even tighter grip on Russian life.
On top of that, Cogent Communications, an internet backbone provider that routes data across intercontinental connections, has cut ties with Russian customers over its invasion of Ukraine, per Verge and The Washington Post. This won’t cut Russia off completely, but it will slow down connectivity.
But a new document floating around indicates Russia is keen to slam down a digital iron curtain itself, which instructed Russian state-owned web services that they must by Friday make sure they have switched to domain name system (DNS) servers located on Russian soil. DNS is like having an address, which allows human users to type a web address that makes sense to us, and have it go to a specific IP, which is a string of numbers, because we are dealing with how computers talk to each other, after all.
This isn’t the first time Putin has floated the idea of a “Sovereign Internet,” and with cyberattacks and pulled services, he might find the time is ripe to roll that idea out again and cut off his people from the rest of the world once and for all.
It might also indicate a pre-emptive defensive position while getting ready to unleash the mother of all cyberattacks on the rest of the world.
Chilling stuff.
Russian Reaction
More than 13,000 Russian citizens have been arrested for protesting the war.
Mothers are calling a hotline in Ukraine looking for their soldier sons sent off to war. Videos have already circulated online showing Russian soldiers being allowed to call home (I saw one on Twitter), and CNN repots that the recordings indicate that many Russian soldiers seemed to not have really known what the plan was, or why they were being deployed, and seem to corroborate reports of Russian soldiers being denied communication with their families.